{
  "experiment": "E3_existence_vs_effectiveness",
  "n_scenarios": 6,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "scenario": "no_event",
      "description": "key minted under an active grant, nothing revoked",
      "truth_effective": true,
      "listed": true,
      "grant_active": true,
      "probe_status": "effective",
      "probe_basis": "exercised api_keys.secret: server auth rule accepts it (status/expiry checked)",
      "predictions": {
        "existence": true,
        "delegation_centric": true,
        "probe": true
      }
    },
    {
      "scenario": "grant_revoked",
      "description": "the authorizing grant is revoked; the key still works (residual authority)",
      "truth_effective": true,
      "listed": true,
      "grant_active": false,
      "probe_status": "effective",
      "probe_basis": "exercised api_keys.secret: server auth rule accepts it (status/expiry checked)",
      "predictions": {
        "existence": true,
        "delegation_centric": false,
        "probe": true
      }
    },
    {
      "scenario": "key_revoked",
      "description": "the key itself is revoked; it is still listed but dead",
      "truth_effective": false,
      "listed": true,
      "grant_active": true,
      "probe_status": "ineffective",
      "probe_basis": "exercised api_keys.secret: server auth rule rejects it (status/expiry checked)",
      "predictions": {
        "existence": true,
        "delegation_centric": true,
        "probe": false
      }
    },
    {
      "scenario": "key_unlisted",
      "description": "the key row is deleted; not listed and dead",
      "truth_effective": false,
      "listed": false,
      "grant_active": true,
      "probe_status": "ineffective",
      "probe_basis": "object not listed; nothing to exercise",
      "predictions": {
        "existence": false,
        "delegation_centric": true,
        "probe": false
      }
    },
    {
      "scenario": "ttl_expired",
      "description": "the key's TTL has passed; still listed but dead",
      "truth_effective": false,
      "listed": true,
      "grant_active": true,
      "probe_status": "ineffective",
      "probe_basis": "exercised api_keys.secret: server auth rule rejects it (status/expiry checked)",
      "predictions": {
        "existence": true,
        "delegation_centric": true,
        "probe": false
      }
    },
    {
      "scenario": "grant_revoked_cascade",
      "description": "grant revoked on a server that cascades; the key is dead",
      "truth_effective": false,
      "listed": true,
      "grant_active": false,
      "probe_status": "ineffective",
      "probe_basis": "exercised api_keys.secret: server auth rule rejects it (status/expiry/grant checked)",
      "predictions": {
        "existence": true,
        "delegation_centric": false,
        "probe": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "scores": {
    "existence": {
      "correct": 3,
      "false_effective": 3,
      "false_ineffective": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    "delegation_centric": {
      "correct": 2,
      "false_effective": 3,
      "false_ineffective": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.333
    },
    "probe": {
      "correct": 6,
      "false_effective": 0,
      "false_ineffective": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  }
}